ARE CONSUMERS CONFIDENT?
I am not a formally educated man and the current news is really confusing me. After listening to the national news each night it makes anyone want to curl up and hide somewhere until this crisis is over based on the gloom and doom they project.
So I decided to do my own research (no science involved here) by talking to dozens of the people I know the best and to form my own conclusions. These people are across all socio economic spectrums.
Some random facts I gathered from my discussions and some statistical research.
Unemployment is down significantly from the start of the Covid crisis.
Companies are challenged getting people to come back to work because of generous unemployment bonuses.
Job openings just surpassed 6.5 million.
Real estate is selling with very limited inventory and multiple offers on homes in all dollar segments.
Record low interest rates.
Boat brokers can’t keep product in stock.
RV sales are at record highs.
Big screen TV sales are up 53% (there goes the stimulus checks.)
Private jet brokers are reporting record demands with little inventory.
Household debt went down $34 billion since the start of the year.
And some more personal experiences;
We needed some new yard furniture and most products were back ordered 2 months because people are staying home and ordering at an unprecedented rate.
Trying to get a landscaper, painter, audio visual, plumber, roofer, construction or electrical project done has been challenging because the providers are running at a backlog of many months.
In summary of my uneducated non-scientific observation is the following. Consumers seem to be confident that we are going to be back to normal, not in the 30 days like we all first expected in March, but by early to mid 2021. This is all predicated on the expected developments on the vaccination front.
The long term effects on the economy and the mountains of debt being piled up for stimulus programs will take all of the people alive today and their children’s children’s lives to payback. And as they say “payback is a b#@&h!”